From pot 1 Benin drew the two-time defending champions and six times champions overall Egypt. This Egyptian side has clearly been the class of the Nations Cup for the last four years now. However, once again they have failed to qualify for the World Cup following a 1-0 defeat to Algeria in a one game playoff last Wednesday. Since then the Egyptian football federation has threatened to withdraw from international football and continue their juvenile war with World Cup dream crushers Algeria. No one would argue that Egypt have a superior side in comparison to Benin but it remains to be seen how Egypt recover from the heartbreak of the Algeria defeat. Will they go to Angola ready to defend their title or will they still be dwelling on their continued World Cup failure. At the end of the day nothing Egypt do in Angola will change the fact that for now they are known as World Cup chokers. The sides inability to qualify for the World Cup will over shadow any Nations Cup success they have until they can finally make it back to the World Cup. Egypt could be ripe for an upset at the hands of Benin or they could be in all conquering Nations Cup form. I think it will be somewhere in the middle which means a result is certainly within Benin’s reach.

Out of pot 2 Benin drew perennial World Cup qualifiers Nigeria who somewhat miraculously qualified for South Africa after an away win in Kenya coupled with a Mozambique victory over Tunisia. Benin faced Nigeria in the last Nations Cup in Ghana in the final match of the group stages. Nigeria were victors in that match by a 2-0 scoreline. That was not a particularly inspiring Nigeria side, though this current Nigerian side is also filled with flaws despite the abundance of talent. Again though, like with Egypt, Nigeria are a superior side. Plus the Nigerians should be motivated to show that they are truly back to being one of the juggernauts of African football and they can do so by claiming their third Nations Cup title. It will be a very tough ask for Benin to get a result in this match but with Nigeria routinely putting in Jekyll & Hyde performances mean Benin will be in with a chance.

And finally out of pot 4 Benin drew the aforementioned Mozambique. The Mozambicans are currently honorary Nigerians for their role in sending Nigeria to the World Cup. Mozambique are making their first appearance in the Nations Cup since 1998 and just their 4th appearance overall so they will be looking for a strong performance after such a long wait. Mozambique like Benin have never made it out of the group stages but unlike Benin they have won a solitary point coming in 1-1 draw with Tunisia all the way back in 1996. They have lost every other match they have contested so like Benin they will be gunning for their first ever Nations Cup win. And both sides will see their match against each other as the prime opportunity to notch their first ever win. Mozambique were a most impressive side at home in World Cup qualifying as neither Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria or Tunisia were able to leave Mozambique with three points. Their away side was less impressive though losing all three away matches in the final stage though they did win away in Botswana and draw in Madagascar in the previous stage, though those two countries are both minnows. So the question with Mozambique will be can they only perform at home or will they be a formidable side on neutral soil as well. Whatever the answer this is certainly the game that Benin will see as their best opportunity at picking up a historic first ever Nations Cup win.

Here is Benin’s match schedule in the group stages:

12 January in Benguela vs. Mozambique
16 January in Benguela vs. Nigeria
20 January in Benguela vs. Egypt

The order of matches for Benin is favorable as they if can defeat Mozambique in the first match then they will certainly be in contention for the knockouts and a draw against one of the group heavyweights could be enough. If Benin are to shock the continent and make it out of the group they would face one of the following four teams in the Quarterfinals: Cameroon, Gabon, Tunisia or Zambia.

Nonetheless it was a great chance for Benin to further prove their credentials by picking up an away win and they duly delivered. Benin scored the opening goal from the penalty spot courtesy of Razak Omotoyossi in the 36th minute. It was the 8th goal of the entire qualification process for Omotoyossi making him the third higest scoring in qualifying, tied with Frédéric Kanouté of Mali and behind only Burkina Faso’s Moumouni Dagano who scored 12 times and Cameroon’s Samuel Eto’o with 9 goals.

Sudan would level matters in stoppage time, also from the penalty spot, with Hassan Ishag converting. The match went into halftime all squared. Benin would grab the winning goal in the 62nd minute through Roumald Boco.

The three points for Benin gave them a total of 10 points which ended up being good enough for second in the group. Ghana finished atop the group of course, accumulating 13 points after grabbing only point in their final two fixtures which were dead fixtures as far as the Black Stars were concerned. Mali who were once again a disappointment finished in third place with 9 points and the poor Sudanese finished well back of the pack with a solitary point which came in their first match at home against Mali.

For Benin it was undoubtedly their best ever World Cup qualifying campaign. While they never came close to an historic World Cup qualification they did record their best ever win against Ghana and in general were more competitive then have ever been before in World Cup qualifying. Plus it is important to remember that they helped knock out 2006 finalists Angola in the prior round as well as Uganda.

Next up for Benin is the African Cup of Nations in Angola in January. That was the realistic objective for Benin from the beginning and they achieved that objective. It is just their 3rd ever Nations Cup appearance though they have now qualified for 3 of the last 4 editions. The task for Benin in Angola will be to record their first ever positive result. They have played 6 matches at the African Cup of Nations and lost them all. The next step in Benin’s progression up the African ladder will be to knock off some of the bigger guns in the Nations cup and grab their first points.

The draw for the Nations Cup takes place this friday in Angola. I will certainly have a post up with my reactions to their draw sometime over the weekend.

With nothing really at stake, I don’t have too much to say about this match so that is why the post is so brief. As for a prediction, I think Benin will narrowly emerge with a 2-1 win though a draw would hardly surprise. The result will more than likely come down to how each side approaches the match. With the Sudanese players knowing they won’t have any significant matches until qualifying for the 2010 Nations Cup gets underway I would probably expect them to have less motivation despite playing at home. The Benin players should at least be motivated to cement their places in the starting eleven and/or making their case to go to Angola.

At the end of the day as long as no one picks up any significant injuries it is a winning formula for Benin. A win would be yet another step forward for the former minnows but emerging with no one in the casualty ward should be the top priority.

It was a match that had no meaning for Ghana who had already qualified for the World Cup (and they can partially thank Benin for that as it was Mohamed Aoudou who got Benin’s equaliser against Mali in the last fixture that allowed Ghana to qualify). For Benin it means their final match in Sudan will be a tense affair as Benin know completed the job. Despite the fact that Ghana were playing merely for pride this is still one of the biggest wins in Benin football history. Beating a continental giant like Ghana does happen everyday, especially for a side that are recently shedding the minnow label.

Now Benin can prepare for Angola where hopefully they can claim their first ever point in the Nations Cup. It may not be the World Cup but Benin continue there steady progress and are now firmly among Africa’s middle-weight sides. Not yet a heavy-weight but certainly no longer a minnow.

And sorry for the lack of posts in recent months. I hope to be able to regularly update the Benin blog in the lead up to and during their Nations Cup adventure.

They look for the first time like a side capable of challenging for a World Cup berth. To do that they will have to grab a massive road win. What would surely be one of their best road wins ever if not the best. The opposition are the talented but admittedly overrated Malians. Mali are a side that best names like Kanoute, Keita, Sissoko and Diarra, though not all those players are available. They are also a side that have never done anything of significance before. They made a timid exit at the Nations Cup in 2008 though not before scraping past Benin. They were never for a minute challenged for a place in Germany in 2006. The best Mali have done is make the quarterfinals at the 2004 Olympics at the under-23 level as well as fourth place finishes at the 2002 and 2004 Nations Cup, one of those being at home. Recently they have fell flat of absurdly high expectations.

Still a win in Mali would be a huge accomplishment for Benin. A win is not essential, what Benin have to do is match Ghana’s result away to Sudan. I am expecting Ghana to claw through and grab a win in Omdurman. In that instance Benin will have to win in Mali in maybe their most important match ever. A win against Mali and Benin should push Ghana to the very end. Both sides have two homes matches in three after this weekends road fixtures. The penultimate fixture is Benin at home to Ghana in Cotonou. If Benin are within three points of Ghana coming into that match then that would officially become the biggest match in Benin history.

The goal is to get to that match within three points. That is why Sunday’s match agains Mali is of the uptmost importance. Can Omotoyossi and Sessegnon and the rest of Benin’s best ever generation of footballers get the job done?

I very much hope so and will give an optimistic 2-1 win to Benin to keep the pressure on Ghana.

Benin faced a must win home match against Sudan and Razak Omotoyossi who has become a talismanic figure delivered the lone goal that propelled Benin to victory in the 22nd minute. It was Omotoyossi’s 7th goal of qualifying. Benin are now the best positioned team in the group to challenge Ghana as Sudan and Mali are both wallowing five points behind the Black Stars. However, Benin has two incredibly tough fixtures upcoming against the Malians. These two matches will determine whether Benin will seriously challenge Ghana for a World Cup berth. The two matches will also play a pivotal role in whether Benin can qualify for their third Nations Cup in Angola.

The win in Sudan while not wholly convincing is a starting point. Against Mali, Benin will have to prove their mettle. Hopefully Benin can take yet another step on the transformation from minnow to a side capable of making it to the world’s grandest stage.

March 28, 2009 away to Ghana
June 6, 2009 home to Sudan
June 20, 2009 away to Mali
September 5, 2009 home to Mali
October 10, 2009 home to Ghana
November 14, 2009 away to Sudan

I think it is a favorable match schedule for Benin. What is likely the toughest fixture comes first away to Ghana. Grabbing a point or even a win in that match could propel Benin all the way to South Africa. They also get Mali on the road in the first three matches meaning both road games against the two teams seeded ahead of them are out of the way at the midpoint. While I think that is a good thing it will turn into a bad thing should they lose both of the matches because then Benin may be all but out of the mix by the time they welcome Ghana and Mali to Cotonou. For Benin to make it to South Africa they must have at least 4 points after the first three matches but preferably 6. Winning at home against Sudan is a must and I think they need to find a way to topple either Mali or Ghana on the road. I also like that they close away to Sudan. That is a winnable game though Sudan will not be pushovers. But ideally Sudan will already be eliminated from both the World Cup and the Nations Cup and Benin will be in a position where if they win that match then they qualify for the World Cup.

Whatever ends up happening I cannot wait until March to see the how the beginning of the final stage of the journey plays out.

Mali is a side that on paper is very dangerous but has failed to date to transfer that same potency to the pitch. They are one of those national teams that everyone thinks are better then they really are or that they should be better than they are. Still even if Mali never finds the form it is thought they have they are not slouches. In fact they defeated Benin in the Nations Cup earlier this year though it was far from a convincing win. And Benin has improved since then while it is unclear if the Malians have. The most important thing about having drawn Mali is that they are not Tunisia. Unfortunately they are not Algeria either. Benin will likely need 4 out 6 points in the matches against Mali to have any chance of reaching South Africa.

The final team in the group is Sudan. The Sudanese recently partook in the Nations Cup for the first time in some 30 odd years. While they weren’t up to par once they took that stage the fact that they managed to qualify first in their group, a group also containing Tunisia, was impressive enough. They have proven that that form is no fluke by once again putting themselves into position to not only qualify for the Nations Cup in Angola but maybe the biggest stage of them all. While Benin should probably take heart that they did not draw Togo, Sudan is likely to prove themselves no slouches this time around. Just ask Mali who were felled in Sudan in the last stage.

While it is not an impossible group it is by no means an easy group either. If Benin is to advance to the World Cup they will have to find yet another gear. Slip ups at this stage are almost always fatal. With just six fixtures and one team advancing there is very little room for error. Four years ago there were six teams in each group allowing for a slow start. This time around whoever gets out of the blocks quickest could see that momentum take them all the way to South Africa. With such a slim margin of error Benin must make sure that they are at the top of their game from the get go.

I will post again later in the week with the schedule list and a look at how the schedule could either benefit or harm Benin’s chances.

There are no envious choices out of Pot 1 which contains Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria. Benin lost to both Nigeria and Cote d’Ivoire back at the Nations Cup in January. The best draw would be Ghana who struggled immensely on the road in the last stage and are not in their best form despite being the best of the African sides at the last World Cup. The next best choice would be Cote d’Ivoire who were in indifferent form in a weak group. I’d next pick Cameroon because I feel Benin would be able to see more of the ball against Cameroon then they would against Egypt who possess a great ability to control possession. I would prefer Egypt over Nigeria though because the Super Eagles even in bad form cruised past Benin in the Nations Cup.

Pot 2 contains Algeria, Guinea, Mali, Morocco and Tunisia. In this group there is a clear choice for who I want Benin to draw and that is Algeria. The Algerians have been dormant for some time right now and remain very poor travelers. My next choice would be Morocco who despite possessing some tremendous players seem to be stuck in a neutral gear right now. They are a good side but seem unable to get back to the level that saw them as World Cup regulars in the 1990s. Next I would take Guinea who also seems to be stuck where they are right now. They have yet to show the ability to dethrone the top sides of African football. There win over Morocco at the Nations Cup is why I’d prefer for Benin to draw the Atlas Lions. Mali would be my 4th choice even though I don’t feel like they have lived up to their potential considering they possess a number of world class players they are still yet to achieve any real success. Tunisia is clearly the team to avoid. They are World Cup veterans and have as deep a pool of players as any other national team on the continent.

Finally is Pot 4 which contains Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sudan and World Cup 2006 finalists Togo. The team to avoid is clearly Togo and its combustible federation. Despite a federation very much prone to self-inflicted chaos, Togo know what it takes to qualify for a World Cup having done so four years ago. Plus Togo at their best is a clear level ahead of the rest of the sides in this pot. Conversely Mozambique is the clear choice for the team to draw. They advanced has runners up from a barren group aside from Cote d’Ivoire. I have severe doubts that they could’ve advanced from a number of other groups. I would rank the other three sides about the same with a slight nod to Sudan as the toughest of the three because they qualified for the last Nations Cup so their current form at least dates back longer than June.

So here is my ideal group for Benin:
Ghana
Algeria
Benin
Mozambique

If they were to get that draw I would give the Squirrels a real chance of making it to South Africa.

To me the worst group would be:
Nigeria
Tunisia
Benin
Togo

In that group I would just be hoping for Benin to make it to Angola.

I will post again with my post-draw thoughts after the draw is made on Wednesday.

Pot 1: Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria
Pot 2: Algeria, Guinea, Mali, Morocco and Tunisia
Pot 3: Benin, Burkina Faso, Gabon, Kenya and Zambia
Pot 4: Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Sudan and Togo